The summer is here, meaning we’re getting closer to the start of fantasy football drafts. Success in those drafts will come from landing terrific bargains in the middle to late rounds while avoiding players who could see their numbers decline compared to 2021. That latter exercise isn’t easy, however, especially in the case of players who are among the elite at their position or are coming off breakout seasons in the stat sheets.
Case in point: In 2020, Robert Tonyan went absolutely bananas for the Packers and fantasy fans with 11 touchdowns and 176.6 fantasy points. Those totals tied him for first and fourth overall among tight ends respectively, making Tonyan a more valuable asset in 2021 drafts. In fact, he was the ninth tight end selected at an average draft position of 87.2 based on the July information acquired on Fantasy Football Calculator.
Tonyan went on to score just two touchdowns in his first eight games before being lost for the remainder of 2021 due to an injured knee. Even before going down, the veteran tight end had failed to score more than eight points in all but two of his eight games.
The point here is that some folks didn’t see this statistical downfall coming since Tonyan was so productive in 2020 and has Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. That leads me to this series, aptly named “The Fantasy Case Against…” where I’ll do my due diligence in looking at players who most people in fantasy land seem to think is a sure bet to remain uber-productive after finding a high level of success in past seasons.
The series highlights big-name players or those coming off enormous statistical years who could see a surprising decline in fantasy success. Like I always say, the only thing that’s predictable about the NFL is that it’s oftentimes unpredictable. And as much as we love our fantasy heroes out on the gridiron, no one is ever guaranteed to succeed.
Next up, I’ll look at the rising value of Ravens superstar tight end Mark Andrews.
Cooper Kupp | Davante Adams | Deebo Samuel | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Diontae Johnson | Cordarrelle Patterson | Michael Thomas | James Conner | Javonte Williams | DK Metcalf | Amari Cooper | A.J. Brown | Antonio Gibson | Patrick Mahomes
2021 season
Andrews is coming off a career season, posting 107 catches, 1,361 yards and nine touchdowns off 153 targets. His 301.1 fantasy points was good enough to rank him first at the position, unseating fantasy superstar Travis Kelce as the leader for the first time since 2016. That’s quite a feat considering Kelce’s dominance. Andrews’ point total was also good enough to finish fourth among tight ends in a single season in the Super Bowl era, and he’s just the third player at the position to record more than 300 points.
Did you know?
In his first 12 games of last season, Andrews ranked second in fantasy points among tight ends. He averaged 8.2 targets, 5.3 catches, 67.6 yards and 14.9 points in those contests, during which time he was second in total points (179.1) only to Kelce (189.2).
In his final five games (Weeks 14-18), however, Andrews went on an unreal, magical sort of streak. During that timeframe, he recorded an average of 11 targets, 8.6 catches, 110 yards and 24.4 points. Andrews’ overall point total was 122, which was a full than the second-best tight end, Kelce (73.6). He also averaged six more points per game than Kelce during this amazing stretch, pushing him atop the position.
Historical trends
Andrews is one of just four tight ends who have scored more than 300 fantasy points in a season during the Super Bowl era, joining Rob Gronkowski (2011), Kelce (2020) and Jimmy Graham (2013). That trio all experienced a drop in production the following year. Gronkowski averaged 2.7 fewer points per game, Kelce dropped 4.5 points a game, and Graham’s average points scored declined by nearly five points based on PPR formats.
If I expand the research to tight ends who have scored 275 or more fantasy points, the results aren’t better. In fact, Kelce (2018), Graham (2012), Zach Ertz (2018) and Darren Waller (2020) all saw declines in points the following year. The average decline of tight ends who scored 275 points or more is 3.6, ranging from 5.3 (Waller) to 2.6 (Graham).
Folks, regression (at some level) is a virtual guarantee for Andrews this season.
Coaching & personnel changes
The Ravens coaching staff remains the same as it pertains to the head coach (John Harbaugh) and offensive coordinator (Greg Roman). That means more of the same for Andrews, who has led the Ravens in targets in two of three seasons under Roman. The lone season he didn’t finish first was in 2020, when he ranked second behind Marquise Brown. Hollywood was traded to the Arizona Cardinals in the offseason, so Andrews is the clear favorite to lead the Baltimore offense in targets for the second straight year.
That’s due in part to the absence of Brown, but also because of the lack of experienced and established wideouts on the roster. We all like Rashod Bateman to break out, but he has just 12 games (four starts) in the pros under his belt. The rest of the team’s top receivers include Devin Duvernay, James Proche II, Tylan Wallace and Jaylon Moore.
That’s not a list of the who’s who of the top wideouts in the National Football League.
Verdict
Andrews is ranked as one of the two best tight ends in fantasy football heading into this season, and with good reason. Coming off a career year in an offense that lacks good alternate options in the passing game, Andrews is in a great position to produce again. With that said, the trend of tight ends who have scored 275-plus fantasy points isn’t one to ignore. Andrews to regress, just how much remains to be seen.
With that being said, it would probably take a long-term injury for Andrews not to finish as a top-10 fantasy tight end. Heck, any drop out of the top five would be seen as a disappointment. After all, he’s finished no worse than sixth in three straight years.
In the two years before his bust-out in 2021, Andrews averaged 13.8 points and 12.2 points, respectively. The high end of those totals would have been fifth best among tight ends in 2021 and would have resulted in 234.6 fantasy points over a 17-game schedule. That’s solid, but it’s also nearly 70 fewer points than he produced last season.
In the month of July, Andrews’s ADP between Fantasy Football Calculator and the NFFC are nearly identical at around 24 overall. That means he’s going, on average, right at the turn of the second and third rounds of 12-team leagues. For those who like to get an elite tight end, Andrews remains a good bet to finish within that territory.
Just keep in mind that duplicating his bananas 2021 totals is an unrealistic expectation. Even Kelce, the best fantasy tight end of the last five years, has seen declines in totals after his two best statistical seasons. If it were me, I’d wait a few more rounds and get a tight end like Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller or George Kittle with a little less of a draft cost.
More fantasy & NFL coverage:
2022 Fantasy Football Draft KitTight End ADP ReportWide Receiver ADP ReportRunning Back ADP ReportQuarterback ADP ReportQuarterback Target TendenciesUpdated PPR RankingsRankings and Stat ProjectionsExpectations for Second-Year QBsHow the Cardinals and Kyler Murray Got Extension Done
